Driving Out Covid

 I have been impressed by what a competent President, backed by a competent team, can do in a few short days. The political winds continue to blow in Washington with confirmation of Cabinet secretaries and other essential personnel, fallout from the failed insurrection of January 6th, pushback from Republicans on the relief package for Covid-induced economic woes, and the curious musings of Representative McCarthy (R-Gaslighting) that we all are to blame for what happened when the U.S. Capitol was invaded. Oh, there is an impeachment trial too. But President Biden and his team have begun to tackle what has consumed us in 2020: a pandemic of coronavirus with still untold consequences.

The full plan is both wide in scope and detailed; it is the work of months by experts in many fields. My wife and I have been giving updates on the pandemic since its start in our community. This will definitely be part of our next talk this week. We have been following the creation, testing, and now the rollout of vaccines quite closely. While there was much good work done in 2020 in the prior administration, it has become evident that we are in for a long slog to make, distribute, and administer vaccines quickly enough.

A few points of biology. SARS-CoV-2 mutates, as all viruses do. Its rate of mutation is, fortunately, less than that of influenza but one must remember that it is novel to Homo sapiens and each time it affects another human is an opportunity for it to mutate as it replicates. As of today, the Johns Hopkins website lists 98,572,942 diagnosed cases worldwide. That is clearly an underestimate because we know many cases are not diagnosed because they are asymptomatic or mild and many lesser developed nations cannot test. Today the United States passed 25,000,000 Covid-19 cases, also an undercount for the same reasons. 

We need an immune population to stop the spread of disease and to lessen the evolution of a viral mutant that might escape vaccine-conferred immunity. What is alarming is the slowness of getting vaccine into arms where it is effective (vaccine in vials is, well, vaccine in vials -- vials don’t become infected and transmit to others). As of today, CDC reports that 20,537,990 doses have been administered, including 3,027,865 people who have received 2 doses (both currently available vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna-NIH require 2 doses several weeks apart). Worldwide to date, the total number of immunizations is more than 63 million. There is an interesting graphic that is updated daily that shows Israel way ahead in the process.

Biden’s Covid-19 team is shooting for a modest 100 million doses by his hundredth day in office. They may be underpromising with the hope to outdeliver. Producing vaccines at an accelerated rate will be difficult. Both Pfizer and Moderna are working 24/7 already and the manufacturing process will take time to ramp up. The logistics of administration requires more money, people, and venues for vaccination. Los Angeles County has converted the immense parking lots at Dodger Stadium to a mass vaccination site and others will follow around the country. The operation of vaccine sites will take time to smooth out the kinks. But at least there is now a federal plan with federal assistance so the beleaguered states and cities and counties, already stressed to the max, have a glimmer of hope that help is on the way. No longer the Trump administration tactic of delivering vaccine across state borders and then in effect saying, “You’re on your own.” At this point, I would counsel everyone that the light at the end of the tunnel is in sight and is real, but we have not reached the fresh air yet. We hopefully will have an additional vaccine by Janssen in mid-February, which will help.

One final thought in closing. As the pandemic has illustrated, we live on a small planet that is intensely interconnected. From a bat to a market to a human in Wuhan to a pandemic was a really short trip in time and space. Now, the rich countries of the world are gobbling up available vaccine supply so that the poor of the world will (as always) be left last in line. Everyone has to remember that until SARS-CoV-2 is controlled globally, no one is truly safe. Rich nations ignore their poor brethren at their own peril.