Pandemic Preparedness - Now and Forever
For the next current events session here at MonteCedro, the group wanted to discuss pandemic preparedness. Since both Margan and I are infectious disease physicians and epidemiologists who were involved in preparedness planning for many years in both military and civilian organizations, this will probably be fairly easy. I thought it might be useful to write a little about how this important topic came to be and, in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, what went wrong. Pandemics are a relatively recent problem. In human history, only in the last 10,000 years have we had the conjunction of agriculture, which fostered larger populations of more sedentary humans, along with constant contact with domesticated animals, whose microorganisms we came to share in a variety of ways. Tuberculosis and measles originated in bovine animals. Influenza is primarily a disease of fowl and pigs. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) arose in nonhuman primates in Africa and likely spread to humans through c