Logistics Is Key

 


Ukraine continues to fight and Putin is now using the standard tactic when his military falters – bludgeoning civilians and screaming ever louder that Ukraine is a danger to Mother Russia. The reality is that Russian military forces have stumbled badly. What in all likelihood was envisioned as a 72-hour war is now approaching 2 weeks and the incompetence of the Russians is beyond astounding. This by no means indicates they will lose, but if they defeat the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian civilians, they then have to occupy Ukraine, install a puppet government, and face a hostile population and the possibility of an ongoing insurrection. 


Phillips P. O’Brien has a cogent post on Twitter worth the read. The oft said phrase about war – amateurs talk tactics, experts talk logistics – is the core of his tweet. It appears obvious that the Russian army has yet to master the science and art of logistics. The stalled convoys have run out of fuel. Troops are being given rations that are years out of date. Ammunition is short. The air force has yet to attain air superiority over Ukraine. The further the army goes from Russian railheads, the more they struggle due to too few trucks and trucks in poor repair. In his tweet, O’Brien has a video that appears to show Russian trains hustling up a bewildering variety of civilian vehicles to make up for the deficit in trucks. For many reasons, this is problematic and unlikely to be helpful. 


It would be helpful if NATO nations still flying Russian planes would either lend or give them to Ukraine. Sadly, Poland is still resisting this idea, as are other NATO nations still flying Russian airframes. It remains to be seen if their reticence in this can be overcome. Ukrainian air superiority would be a huge inflection point. 


We all stand by while this war proceeds. Putin is a narcissistic sociopath. So is Trump but fortunately he was not able to climb into the cockpit of power as he wanted to. Remember January 6. Stand by Ukraine. Democracy is at stake.

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